Will London have between 20-30mm of precipitation in March?
Polymarket · 54d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.22
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
25%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
75%
Key Factors
- Critical discrepancy between data sources (~26mm vs ~6mm accumulated)
- Forecasts show mostly dry conditions March 29-31 with only light showers
- If ~26mm is accurate, need to add no more than 4mm to stay in range
- Met Office Heathrow is the official resolution source
- Market expires in ~1.4 days with limited time for new information
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total