Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

“Keiko Fujimori led consistently across all major polling firms in the final pre-election surveys: Datum had her at 14.5%, Ipsos at 18.6% among valid votes, giving her a clear first-place position in a fragmented field of 20+ candidates.. Polymarket traders priced Fujimori at 67% implied probability to win the first-round plurality as of April 10, 2026, reflecting strong market consensus that she would finish first and advance to any runoff..”

“The market resolves on WINNING the election, not winning the first round. Fujimori's historical pattern is precisely this: she leads first rounds but loses runoffs. She lost the 2011 runoff to Humala and the 2021 runoff to Castillo despite leading first rounds both times. A 67% first-round plurality probability does NOT translate to a 67% win probability for the full election.. Anti-Fujimori sentiment in Peru is structurally entrenched and historically decisive. In both 2011 and 2021, broad coalitions formed against her in the second round. The fragmented first round actually INCREASES the likelihood of a runoff, where this anti-Fujimorismo dynamic reasserts itself regardless of who her opponent is..”