Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 30, 2026?
Polymarket · 53d ago
SkippedSKIP YES · $0.97
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
99%
P(YES)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
99%
Key Factors
- 100% base rate of daily Israeli military action in Lebanon over 28 consecutive days (March 2-29)
- Netanyahu ordered expansion of operations on March 29
- IDF soldier killed by Hezbollah on March 29 - retaliation expected
- Active ground invasion with forces advancing toward Litani River
- No ceasefire negotiations with imminent deadlines
- Market already priced at 97% leaving minimal edge after spread
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total