Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?

Polymarket · 53d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.89
Reasoning

Agent Consensus

92%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
8%
Key Factors
  • March 28 has already passed - this is a retrospective question
  • No credible reports of Israeli airstrikes on Gaza on March 28 found
  • Market price at 12% YES is consistent with event not occurring
  • Israel was reportedly focused on Iran operations around this date
  • Residual YES probability likely reflects market friction, not genuine uncertainty

Analysis

2 agents · 0.0s total