Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026?
Polymarket · 53d ago
SettledBUY YES · $0.66
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
92%
P(YES)
YES
Superforecaster
92%
Key Factors
- Three confirmed countries struck: Lebanon (daily since March 3), Iran (multiple including March 27-28), Syria (March 20)
- Market criteria is clear: strikes on sovereign soil of UN member states
- Only 0.8 days remain - events have already occurred, this is essentially a resolution question
- Syria strike is the marginal case but appears well-documented by IDF and UN
- Market appears underpriced at 66% given strikes already confirmed
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total