Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?

“Iran has demonstrated a clear pattern of striking Qatar during this war, with documented strikes on February 28, March 2, March 18 (the major Ras Laffan LNG facility strike causing ~17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity damage), and April 1, 2026 — showing a base rate of strikes roughly every 15 days and willingness to target Qatar despite its mediator role.. The April 8 ceasefire is extremely fragile and may already be collapsing: Trump publicly stated on April 21 that Iran has 'violated [the ceasefire] numerous times,' Iran has resumed firing on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump's 3-5 day negotiation window (from April 21-22) expires approximately April 26-27 — meaning the ceasefire may have legally/practically lapsed before April 30..”

“The bull's own evidence implies NO: with only ~1.9 days to expiry, the relevant base rate is not the full-war average of 'one strike every 15 days' but the conditional hazard in the current regime. Since the April 8 ceasefire, the report cites zero documented strikes on Qatar over ~20 days. Even using the report's wartime chronology, the strike process is clustered and state-dependent, not stationary; extrapolating the whole-war average into the final 48 hours is a category error.. Most of the bull's escalation evidence does not satisfy the market trigger. Firing on tankers or coercing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is not a drone/missile/air strike on Qatari soil or an official Qatari embassy/consulate. Maritime harassment can coexist with no qualifying strike on Qatar, so this is weak evidence for YES under this market's resolution criteria..”