Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?

“European Space Agency satellite imagery on April 8 at ~10:00 AM local time captured fire and thick black smoke rising from the Abqaiq processing facility, with Saudi Press Agency subsequently confirming attacks on oil and gas infrastructure — this observable event falls within the market resolution window and could plausibly satisfy the YES criterion on its own.. Iran explicitly declared on April 7 that its 'restraint in targeting oil infrastructure in the region would no longer apply' following U.S. strikes on Kharg Island, and has demonstrated sustained willingness to target Saudi energy infrastructure — East-West Pipeline (-700k bpd), Manifa (-300k bpd), Khurais (-300k bpd), plus refineries at Jubail, Ras Tanura, Yanbu, and Riyadh — showing no categorical sparing of Saudi assets..”

“The bull's main pillar is not a confirmed strike but an ambiguity: satellite imagery showing fire/smoke at Abqaiq on April 8 does not establish a kinetic Iranian strike on the facility. The research itself concedes the key attribution and timing are unresolved, and that official Saudi post-ceasefire attack lists did not clearly include Abqaiq. For resolution, ambiguity is poison to YES, not support for it.. The strongest structural evidence cuts against YES: with only ~1.9 days to expiry, the prior probability of any specific named facility being struck is very low even in a hot conflict. Iran may have attacked regional energy infrastructure broadly, but this market is not 'Will Iran hit Saudi energy infrastructure'—it is one exact facility. Conditioning on a tiny time window and a single target collapses the probability..”