Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in March?
Polymarket · 53d ago
SettledBUY NO · $0.74
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
92%
P(NO)
NO
Superforecaster
8%
Key Factors
- 149.7mm accumulated through March 26 — need 10.3-20.3mm more for YES
- Only ~0.8 days remain with persistent anticyclone and dry forecast
- Narrow 10mm bin makes precise landing unlikely even if some rain occurs
- March climatological normal is 54-100mm; 160+mm is historically rare
- Low liquidity ($40) means execution may be difficult
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total