Will Honeywell International (HON) beat quarterly earnings?

“Honeywell has beaten consensus EPS in four consecutive quarters, with an average surprise of 6.26% over the last two quarters (Q3 2025: +10.16%, Q4 2025: +2.37%). A 100% beat rate over the measured period establishes a strong base rate.. Zacks flags HON as a 'compelling earnings-beat candidate' with a positive Earnings ESP of +0.64% combined with a solid Zacks Rank — a combination that historically produces positive surprises approximately 70% of the time..”

“The bull's '100% beat rate' base case is statistically weak and overstated: four quarters is a tiny sample, and citing a two-quarter average surprise of 6.26% is especially fragile because one quarter (+10.16%) dominates it. Small-sample streaks do not justify a 78% beat probability, particularly when this quarter has a disclosed company-specific disruption not present in the generic base rate.. The strongest piece of hard information is management's own warning that Q1 revenue could be reduced by a high-single-digit percentage due to Middle East shipping disruption. That is not a narrative headwind; it is a direct quarter-specific delivery/timing problem. Since EPS beats are decided on a single reported number, shipment delays create asymmetric downside risk: revenue can slip out of the quarter while many costs remain fixed, compressing operating leverage and making even a lowered consensus vulnerable..”