Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

“Every major poll in the final weeks shows GERB firmly in second place: Center for Analysis and Marketing (April 3-14) has Progressive Bulgaria at 32.1% and GERB at 19.4%; Sova Harris (April 2-6) has Progressive Bulgaria at 33.6% and GERB at 19%. GERB's second-place position is consistent across all pollsters.. The gap between GERB in second and the third-place party (WCC-DB at ~11-12%) is approximately 7-8 percentage points — a massive buffer that would require an unprecedented polling error for GERB to fall to third. Simultaneously, the gap between GERB and first-place Progressive Bulgaria (~13-15 points) makes it nearly impossible for GERB to leapfrog into first..”

“The bull's core data appears internally consistent and sourced from named pollsters (Center for Analysis and Marketing, Sova Harris), but with only 2.9 days to expiry and a market already at $0.95, the NO case is structurally weak — the real question is whether the 5% residual risk is correctly priced.. Bulgarian polling has historically shown significant variance due to high rates of late-deciding voters and the fragmented multi-party system. A 7-8 point gap to third place (WCC-DB) is substantial but not insurmountable if there is systematic polling error — Bulgarian elections have seen polling misses of 3-5 points for individual parties..”