Will GERB-SDS win between 60-64 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

“Polling error could bridge the gap: The research shows GERB-SDS polling at 19-19.4% with projected seats of 53-54. The target range of 60-64 seats would require roughly 22-23% vote share. Bulgaria has experienced significant polling volatility across its eight elections in five years, and a 3-4 percentage point polling miss is within the realm of historical possibility for Bulgarian elections.. The D'Hondt method seat allocation is sensitive to the number of parties clearing the threshold: If fewer parties clear the 4% threshold than polls project, GERB-SDS as the largest party would disproportionately benefit from the redistribution of wasted votes. This mechanical effect could push their seat count several seats higher than current projections suggest, potentially into the low 60s..”

“The polling consensus is unusually tight and consistent: two independent firms (CAM and Sova Harris) using different methodologies both project 53-54 seats, converging on a figure roughly 7-10 seats BELOW the target range floor of 60. This is not a single poll — it is a structural consensus requiring a ~6 percentage point systematic polling error to be wrong, which is historically rare even in volatile Bulgarian elections.. The bull's D'Hondt threshold argument is speculative and cuts both ways: while fewer parties clearing 4% would redistribute seats upward for GERB, more parties clearing the threshold (a realistic scenario in a fragmented Bulgarian electorate) would dilute GERB's seat share further, potentially pushing them BELOW 53 seats rather than toward 60+. The argument is not directionally reliable..”