Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

“The McLaughlin & Associates poll (April 7, Trump's pollster) showed Fidesz ahead by 5.3 percentage points — Fidesz at 42.6% vs Tisza at 37.3% — demonstrating that at least one credible pollster with 1,000 in-person interviews found Fidesz leading. This suggests the race may be closer than opposition-leaning polls indicate, and systematic polling errors favoring opposition parties have occurred in Hungary before (2018, 2022).. Hungary's electoral system is heavily gerrymandered in Fidesz's favor. In 2022, Fidesz won a two-thirds supermajority with roughly 54% of the vote. The single-member district (SMD) system and constituency boundaries were redrawn by Fidesz, meaning Fidesz can win the most seats even while losing the popular vote by a meaningful margin. If polls overstate Tisza's lead by even a few points, the seat math could shift dramatically toward Fidesz..”

“The polling consensus is overwhelmingly against Fidesz: Publicus shows Tisza +13 (52% vs 39%), PolitPro aggregate shows Tisza +9 (49.1% vs 40.2%), and Medián's large-sample 5,000-respondent projection shows Tisza winning 138-142 seats vs Fidesz's 49-55. For Fidesz to win the most seats, ALL of these polls would need to be wrong by historically unprecedented margins simultaneously.. The McLaughlin & Associates poll (Fidesz +5.3) is a significant outlier and should be treated with extreme skepticism: it was commissioned by a partisan pollster with ties to Trump/MAGA world (which has ideological alignment with Orbán), used only 1,000 in-person interviews, and contradicts every other polling organization by 14-18 percentage points. Outlier polls from partisan sources deserve heavy discounting..”