Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats?

“2022 baseline and seat bonus: In the last election Fidesz-KDNP won 135 of 199 seats (68%) on a 54% vote share; under the same electoral map a vote share above ~45% typically delivers over 80 seats, implying Fidesz would have to lose roughly 9 points of vote share and half its seats merely to hit the 80-seat threshold.. Recent by-elections: Fidesz-KDNP has won all eight contested by-elections since Tisza’s rise (e.g. Kazincbarcika 283–134 on Mar. 8; Balmazújváros 47%–43% on Feb. 8) including in nominally competitive districts, demonstrating sustained ground-game advantages and local appeal..”

“The rise of Péter Magyar's Tisza Party represents the first unified, credible center-right alternative to Fidesz, effectively ending the opposition fragmentation that previously allowed Fidesz to win single-member districts (SMDs) with pluralities.. Recent polling from Republikon showing Tisza leading 49-40% suggests a massive 14-point swing away from Fidesz compared to 2022; if this trend holds, Fidesz will lose the vast majority of the 106 SMDs where they previously relied on a divided opposition..”