Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?

“The Strait of Hormuz has been described as in 'operational closure' for ~100 days as of June 9 per MUFG, with traffic down >95% from pre-war levels. Kpler recorded just 19 commodity vessels in one early-May week — already below the 25 threshold — demonstrating sub-25 weeks have occurred in less escalated conditions than the current week.. Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters on June 11 explicitly declared the strait 'completely closed,' the IRGC Navy ordered all vessels not to leave anchorages, and claimed to have struck two vessels attempting transit. This is a qualitative hardening from prior de facto control to active targeting, which directly suppresses days 4-7 of the window..”

“The 25-ship threshold over 7 days is only 3.6 ships/day. That is an extremely low bar relative even to wartime conditions described in the research. Multiple cited wartime averages are still above this: March at 154 vessels (~5/day), Feb 28-Apr 12 at 279 over 45 days (~6.2/day), Reuters/Anadolu around ~6-7/day, and Kpler's mid-May pace of ~55/week (~7.9/day). For NO, traffic does not need to normalize; it only needs to stay above a very depressed wartime baseline.. The bull leans heavily on one early-May '19 commodity vessels' week, but that is a narrow-category count and not the contract category. The market resolves on IMF PortWatch transit calls for container, dry bulk, ro-ro, general cargo, and tanker ships. A commodity-only Kpler week is not directly comparable and likely understates the resolver universe. Using a subset to argue a broader all-eligible-vessel threshold is a category error..”