Will FC Arouca win on 2026-04-06?
Polymarket · 47d ago
RejectedREJECTED NO · $0.62
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
65%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
35%
Key Factors
- Arouca's poor home form this season (4W 3D 6L, ~31% win rate)
- Estoril's poor away form (4W 2D 7L, ~31% away loss rate but only 22% away win rate - draws common)
- Estoril is the stronger team by league position (7th vs 12th)
- Arouca's recent momentum (wins over Nacional 3-0, Moreirense 1-0)
- H2H roughly balanced with slight Estoril edge
- Draw is a significant probability (~30%), reducing both teams' win probabilities
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total