Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?

“Musk demonstrated a 38-post day on April 16, 2026, proving capacity to post at rates that would put 90-114 within reach if sustained across the window.. Research cites an April 10-17 average of 43.4 posts/day; if that rate held across 3 days it would produce ~130 posts, placing 90-114 within the plausible distribution..”

“Arithmetic alone kills the bull case. The research itself says there were only about 4 hours 13 minutes left and roughly 34-38 posts already confirmed. To reach 90, Musk would need about 52-56 additional counted posts in ~4.2 hours, or roughly 12-13 posts per hour. That is not 'modest upside variance'; it is an extreme end-of-window burst far above the observed pace in this same window.. The bull's main evidence is internally inconsistent and partly misused. A single 38-post day does not support 90-114 over this market's window when the contemporaneous tracker reportedly had the total only in the mid-30s halfway through. One high day is a noisy observation, not a structural estimate for a 72-hour total. Using one-day capacity to infer three-day sustain is classic sample-size abuse..”