Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026?

“Per XTracker, Musk had 587 posts in May 2026 as of the snapshot, meaning he needs only 213-252 more posts to land in 800-839. Spread over the remaining ~6-7 days, that's roughly 30-42 tweets/day — a moderate pace well within his demonstrated range.. The April 24-May 1, 2026 window resolved at 180-199 tweets (22-25/day), showing Musk has had a recent low-activity regime in this exact period. If part of early-to-mid May also followed this slower pace, a mid-range monthly total like 800-839 becomes structurally plausible rather than extreme..”

“The bull's core arithmetic actually argues against 800-839 being the modal outcome. If the partial 587 count is roughly current with 6.9 days left, Musk only needs about 36-37 posts/day to clear 840, and the bull itself cites multiple recent windows implying daily rates around 40-43 or higher. On the bull's own inputs, continuation of recent behavior overshoots this band.. This is a narrow 40-post bucket inside a much wider plausible distribution. Musk's posting is highly overdispersed and event-driven; when variance is high, exact-range bets become less attractive unless the target sits near the center of the conditional distribution. Here, conditional on 587 already banked late in the month, the center looks more likely above 839 than inside 800-839..”