Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026?

“The 800-839 bucket sits directly adjacent to the market's frontrunner range of 840-879 (40% probability per research), meaning it's one of the closest 'near-miss' buckets and should capture meaningful tail probability — likely the second or third most likely outcome.. Research indicates Musk's recent daily averages have been declining: the April 28-May 5 window showed ~20-22.7 tweets/day, and the May 28-30 market shows 13.3-21.3 tweets/day as frontrunner. If end-of-month rates skew lower than the May 19-26 spike average of ~32.5/day, the monthly total could easily land below 840 and into the 800-839 range..”

“Counter to the bull's 'adjacent bucket' argument: adjacency is not evidence of high probability by itself. In a discretized market with 40-tweet buckets, many outcomes are mechanically adjacent to the mode; what matters is the distribution's center and variance. If the market frontrunner is 840-879 at ~40% and the next bucket up is also materially live per the research, then 800-839 is on the left tail of the main mass, not at the center. Being one bucket away from the leader does not make it especially likely when the implied mean appears above 840.. The bull overstates the evidence for a late-month slowdown. The cited May 28-30 market is not an observed outcome in the supplied research; it is only a frontrunner range at 55%, i.e. an implied projection, not realized data. Using an unresolved 3-day market as if it strongly supports the 800-839 bucket is weak because short windows are noisy and prediction prices are themselves the object being evaluated, not an independent fact..”