Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?

Polymarket · 46d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.28
Reasoning

Agent Consensus

45%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
55%
Key Factors
  • Current posting pace (~41 through late April 5) suggests potentially lower than 65-89 range
  • Prior identical period hit 98 (above range), showing upside risk too
  • Easter weekend may dampen activity
  • High variance in Musk's daily posting makes precise bucket prediction difficult
  • Only ~5 hours remain in the counting period, reducing but not eliminating uncertainty
  • Market at 0.71 seems to overweight the probability of landing in this specific bucket

Analysis

2 agents · 0.0s total