Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?

“Market consensus as of April 15 at 5:00 AM ET strongly favors the 40-64 bracket at 66% implied probability, reflecting the aggregated wisdom of traders with real money at stake who have access to real-time tracking data.. With 24 posts tallied through midday April 14 (the first 24 hours of the 48-hour window), Musk needs only 16-40 more posts in the remaining ~18 hours to land in the 40-64 range. His prior week's daily average was 43 posts per day according to XTracker data (299 posts over 7 days), meaning even at his current reduced pace of ~12 posts/day, he would reach approximately 33 total — but any return toward his normal cadence during waking hours on April 15 would push him comfortably into the 40-64 range..”

“The bull's core arithmetic is flawed: with 24 posts in the first 36 hours and only ~7 hours remaining, Musk needs 16-40 MORE posts in those 7 hours to hit the 40-64 bracket. That requires a posting rate of 2.3-5.7 posts/hour — his 'reduced pace' of 12/day is only 0.5/hour, meaning he'd need a 5-10x acceleration in the final window to reach even the floor of the bracket.. The research data itself is internally contradictory and likely contains fabricated or hallucinated statistics. The claim of '299 posts over 7 days' (43/day average) for April 7-14 is cited twice with the same source tag [10][10][12], a hallmark of AI-generated citation fabrication. The prior window resolving at '115-139 posts' in 3 days (~40-46/day) is also suspiciously precise for unverified data. These figures should be treated as unreliable..”