Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

Polymarket · 53d ago
RejectedREJECTED NO · $0.96
Reasoning

Agent Consensus

94%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Forecaster
3%
Bull
15%
Bear
2%
Bulls say
Elon Musk's posting activity has shown significant variability, with recent peaks reaching 71 posts on March 27 and 54 posts on March 23, demonstrating his capacity for high-volume posting within a single day.. Historical highs for Elon Musk's daily posts have exceeded 60 during 'viral periods,' and early 2026 averages have reached 45-55 posts per day, indicating that an average of ~48 posts per day (380 total over 8 days) is within his demonstrated capacity, especially if engagement surges..
Bears say
The bull fabricated the '8 full days' timeline. March 31 12:00 PM ET to April 7 12:00 PM ET is exactly 7 days (168 hours). This mathematical error artificially lowers the required daily average; Musk actually needs 54.3 posts per day, not 47.5.. Base rates strongly reject this volume. The research explicitly notes that in 2025-2026, less than 1% of similar weekly bins have hit 380+ posts..

Full Debate

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