Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?
Polymarket · 39d ago
SettledBUY NO · $0.79
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
99%
P(NO)
NO
Forecaster
0%
Bull
2%
Bear
1%
Bulls say
“The research states approximately 130 tweets have been posted through the first 6 days of the 7-day window. To reach 340-359, Musk would need to post 210-229 tweets in a single remaining day, which is roughly 3-4x his highest observed daily output even during peak engagement periods like the Hungarian election coverage.. Even during the April 11-13 spike driven by the Hungarian election, Musk averaged approximately 60 qualifying posts per day (120 posts over ~2 days according to the research). Reaching the 340-359 bin would require roughly 210+ posts in the final day — over 3x his peak daily rate..”
Bears say
“The math is arithmetically impossible under any realistic scenario: with ~130 tweets posted in 6 days and only ~1 day remaining, Musk would need 210-229 tweets in a single day to reach the 340-359 bin. His observed peak daily rate during the Hungarian election spike was ~60 posts/day — meaning he would need to post at 3.5-4x his documented peak rate.. The research's own data is internally consistent and self-corroborating: the April 11-13 spike of 120 posts over ~2 days (60/day average) during a major political event represents a high-activity outlier, yet even tripling that rate falls short of the required single-day output of 210+ posts..”
Full Debate
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