Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?

“As of April 13 evening, XTracker recorded 293 posts with approximately 17 hours remaining in the measurement window. At the observed daily average of ~42 posts/day during this period, 17 hours represents roughly 30 additional posts (42 × 17/24 = ~29.75), which would bring the total to approximately 322-323 — squarely within the 320-339 range.. The market itself prices this outcome at 38-41% probability, making it the second most likely outcome behind 300-319. With 293 posts already confirmed and a full night plus morning of posting remaining, the 320-339 bucket requires only 27-46 more posts — a range that aligns well with Musk's demonstrated ~40 posts/day pace during this window..”

“The bull's central arithmetic is fragile: 293 posts + ~30 more = ~323 only if Musk posts at EXACTLY his average rate in the final 17 hours. But the final hours of a measurement window are not randomly distributed — overnight hours (midnight to 8 AM ET) typically see significantly reduced posting activity. If the final 17 hours span late evening through morning, the effective posting rate could be 20-50% below the daily average, yielding only 15-22 additional posts and a final total of 308-315, which falls in the 300-319 bucket, NOT 320-339.. The 300-319 bucket is priced at 42.9% vs 320-339 at 38.4% on Polymarket — the market itself assigns higher probability to the LOWER bucket. This is the structural signal: the most informed traders with real money at stake believe the count is more likely to land just BELOW 320 than within 320-339. The bull is arguing against the market consensus while citing that same market as supporting evidence..”