Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

Polymarket · 36d ago
RejectedREJECTED NO · $0.00
Reasoning

Agent Consensus

79%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Forecaster
22%
Bull
23%
Bear
18%
Bulls say
Musk currently stands at 267 posts with ~28 hours remaining, needing only 53-72 more posts (35-48/day rate) to hit 320-339. His early-week pace of 57.3 posts/day during April 10-13 proves he can sustain rates well above this threshold within this exact measurement window.. The March 13-20 market resolved at exactly 320-339 posts (100% probability), demonstrating that Musk has achieved this precise range in recent weeks. This is not an outlier target — it's a documented recent outcome..
Bears say
The mathematical reality is stark: with 267 posts through 6 days and ~28 hours remaining, Musk needs 53-72 more posts. His RECENT rate (April 13-16) was ~31.7/day, meaning at current pace he finishes around 295-305 — firmly in the 300-319 bin, not 320-339. YES requires roughly doubling his recent pace, not just maintaining it.. The bull's claim that March 13-20 resolved at 320-339 (100% probability) is cited as proof this is achievable, but this is a single data point from a different week. The three most recent resolved weekly markets (April 3-10: 241 posts, March 31-April 7: 268 posts, April 7-14: 299 posts) all resolved BELOW 320. The trend is actually downward or flat relative to the 320 threshold, not supportive of it..

Full Debate

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