Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
Kalshi · 46d ago
RejectedBUY NO · $0.84
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
95%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
5%
Key Factors
- Window is 7 days not 8 - correcting this makes the required daily rate (31.4-34.1/day) closer to observed baseline
- Observed daily rates in early April range 25-37 tweets/day with significant uncertainty
- The 220-239 bin is narrow (20 tweets) relative to the wide distribution of possible outcomes
- 4 days have already elapsed - the running total (unknown to us) heavily constrains the outcome
- High variance in Musk's posting behavior increases uncertainty
- Monthly consensus suggests higher rates (43-46/day) which would push total well above this range
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total