Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?

“The April 11 'blockbuster rant' about South Africa and Starlink licensing generated 17 million views and substantial engagement, creating a catalyst for elevated posting volume well above the recent 30-40 post/day norm. Controversy-driven posting spikes are exactly the mechanism that could push into the 165-189 range (55-63 posts/day).. By the evening of April 12, trackers logged over 100 qualifying tweets with approximately 18 hours still remaining in the window. If the pace from the first ~30 hours (~100 posts) continued linearly, the final total could reach 140-160 posts, and any additional burst of activity on April 13 morning (engagement with Alex Soros, Tesla FSD promotions, Grok promotions noted in research) could push into the 165+ range..”

“The three most recent comparable windows (April 2-4: ~98 posts, April 4-6: 65-89 range, April 9-11: 65-89 range) all resolved well below 165. The 165-189 target requires 55-63 posts/day — roughly 2x the established April 2026 baseline of 22-38 posts/day. Base rates strongly favor NO.. The bull's linear extrapolation from '100 posts by evening of April 12' is structurally flawed. Posting rates are not linear — they spike during controversy and taper off. The South Africa rant controversy likely front-loaded activity in the first 24 hours, meaning the remaining 18 hours would likely see regression toward the mean, not continuation at peak pace. Even if 100 posts were logged by April 12 evening, reaching 165+ requires ~65 more posts in the final ~18 hours — a rate of ~3.6 posts/hour sustained through overnight hours..”