Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?

“The current market consensus strongly favors the 140-164 range at approximately 61% implied probability, reflecting the aggregated wisdom of traders who have put $2.9 million in volume behind their assessments. Markets with this level of liquidity and engagement tend to be well-calibrated, especially this close to resolution.. Real-time tracking data shows the 114-tweet threshold was definitively breached with approximately 14 hours remaining before resolution, which caused the 90-114 bracket to crash from 55.5% to 0.6% and the 140-164 bracket to surge from 1.7 cents to 42.65 cents. This repricing reflects concrete counting data, not speculation..”

“The 115-139 bracket was trading at ~46 cents (higher than the 140-164 bracket at ~42.65 cents) at the last reported data point, meaning the market's own pricing actually favored the LOWER bracket over the 140-164 range — the bull's claim of '61% implied probability' for 140-164 appears to be either stale data or fabricated, as the research itself shows 115-139 at 56.3 cents peak and settling around 46 cents vs 140-164 at 42.65 cents.. The arithmetic doesn't support the bull's case: if 114 tweets were confirmed with ~14 hours remaining, Musk needs 26-50 MORE qualifying posts in 14 hours to hit the 140-164 range. At his average pace of ~38-41 posts/day (roughly 1.6-1.7 per hour), 14 hours yields only ~22-24 additional posts, putting the expected total at ~136-138 — squarely in the 115-139 bracket, NOT the 140-164 bracket..”