Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?

Polymarket · 47d ago
SkippedSKIP YES · $0.11
Reasoning

Agent Consensus

38%
P(YES)
SKIPPED
Forecaster
28%
Bull
75%
Bear
10%
Bulls say
Elon Musk's consistent posting rate strongly aligns with the target range. His full March 2026 average was ~43 posts/day, which extrapolates to 129 posts over three days, squarely within the 115-139 range.. Over a recent 5-day period (March 31-April 7), Musk maintained a pace of ~37 posts/day (186 posts over 5 days), which would result in 111 posts over three days. This is very close to the lower bound of 115 and indicates a sustained high volume..
Bears say
The bull researcher made a glaring mathematical error: the period from April 6 12:00 PM ET to April 8 12:00 PM ET is exactly 48 hours (2 days), not 3 days.. To reach the minimum threshold of 115 posts in 48 hours, Musk must average 57.5 qualifying posts per day. The bull's own cited March average of ~43 posts/day would yield only 86 posts, guaranteeing a NO resolution..

Full Debate

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