Will Blackstone (BX) beat quarterly earnings?

“Blackstone has beaten EPS consensus in four consecutive quarters, with three of those beats in double-digit percentage territory (Q4 2025: +14.38%, Q3 2025: +22.58%, Q2 2025: +10%, Q1 2025: +2.83%). This establishes a strong base rate favoring another beat.. Blackstone's own 8-K intra-quarter disclosure reported $680M+ in realized performance revenues and realized principal investment income through March 24, 2026 — a strong leading indicator since performance revenues are the key swing factor in BX's earnings model..”

“The bull's base-rate argument is overstated and partially non-comparable. A 4-quarter streak of beats is a tiny sample and not enough to justify a 75% true beat probability for a highly variable alternative-asset manager. More importantly, some cited prior-quarter figures appear inconsistent across sources in the research packet itself (e.g. consensus ranges vary), so the exact beat magnitudes should not be treated as precise evidence. Small-sample streaks are noisy, and earnings-beat persistence is weaker when quarter-to-quarter realizations are episodic rather than recurring.. The $680M preliminary realization disclosure is not a clean read-through to GAAP EPS > $1.34. Blackstone explicitly said the partial-period figure was not intended to predict total quarter revenues. Through-March-24 data leaves the final week unobserved, and realized performance revenues are only one component of GAAP EPS. GAAP for an alternative manager can be moved materially by mark-to-market, investment income, compensation/accrual timing, taxes, and share count effects. A single partial revenue datapoint cannot be linearly mapped to an EPS beat..”