Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in March 2026?
Polymarket · 54d ago
SkippedSKIP YES · $0.95
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
96%
P(YES)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
96%
Key Factors
- Bitcoin MTD return positive (~4-7%) vs S&P 500 MTD return negative (~-6.5%)
- Only 1.3 days remaining until resolution
- Would require ~10%+ relative swing in 1-2 days to flip outcome
- Such extreme daily moves are historically very rare (<2-3% probability)
- Market price of 95% is well-calibrated to the situation
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total