Will Bending Spoons' market cap be less than $16B at market close on IPO day?

“Independent fundamental analysis from Aardvark Labs sets fair value at $13-16B (17x normalized FY2027 owner earnings of $815M, 12-16x adjusted EBITDA), explicitly stating a $19-20B valuation would require granting Constellation Software's multiple to a first-day public company — a stretch. If any of this view is shared by allocated institutions, selling pressure toward fair value is likely.. The gap to the threshold is only ~13% below the reported $18.4B implied offer valuation ($29 to ~$25.20/share). Statista data shows more than half of U.S. IPOs in 2023 had negative first-day returns (up from 39.5% in 2022), and Columbia Law School's Blue Sky Blog documents rising incidence of negative first-day returns — a ~13% drop is well within the modern IPO distribution..”

“The bull's core setup relies on unverified offer terms. The claimed $29 IPO price, 58M shares sold, and $18.4B implied valuation are all tagged [UNVERIFIED] in the research itself. If those inputs are wrong, the inferred 'only ~13% to the threshold' math may be wrong too. A NO case benefits from this because the market resolves on official closing market cap, not speculative pre-close media arithmetic.. Even accepting the reported $18.4B offer-implied valuation, YES requires a large same-day downside move in a fully managed IPO process. A drop from $29 to about $25.2 is not a trivial 'negative day'; it is a double-digit break below the offer on day one. For a large, bank-led IPO, the structural default is aftermarket support near the deal price via allocation discipline, stabilization, and underwriter incentives to avoid an obvious busted IPO..”