Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?

“March 2026 already printed 3.3% Y/Y with a massive 0.9% M/M jump driven by energy (BLS official release). Only a 0.5pp acceleration is needed to hit 3.8% — well within range given energy prices remained elevated through April, with Brent near $100-115/bbl as of early May (Fortune, May 4) and gas prices $1.12 higher Y/Y on April 30 (AAA).. Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 headline PCE forecast by a FULL percentage point due to the Iran war energy shock, and explicitly warned the shock is broadening beyond energy via fertilizer (+1.5% food prices, +0.1pp headline), shipping costs, and an 8% USPS fuel surcharge — pass-through effects that compound the headline reading in April..”

“The bull's central arithmetic is weak: moving from 3.3% Y/Y in March to 3.8% in April is not 'only' a trivial 0.5pp step. Year-over-year CPI changes by replacing April 2025 with April 2026, so a 0.5pp jump in one month is large unless April 2026 monthly inflation materially exceeds April 2025's monthly print. Without a verified April 2025 base in the research, the bull is asserting magnitude without the necessary denominator.. The best directly relevant signal in the packet is consensus around 3.7% Y/Y, not 3.8%+. When the event threshold sits 0.1pp above consensus, YES requires either a forecast error in the hot direction or a right-tail shock. That can happen, but structurally it is a tail event, not the base case. The bull offers macro narrative, not evidence that forecasters specifically underpriced April headline CPI by enough to clear the threshold..”