Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $205 on April 6?

Polymarket · 48d ago
RejectedREJECTED YES · $0.89
Reasoning

Agent Consensus

88%
P(YES)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
88%
Key Factors
  • AMZN closed at $209.77 on April 2, providing a 2.3% buffer above $205
  • 92% base rate of closing above $205 over last 30 trading days
  • Strong recovery trend from late-March dip below $205
  • Weekend gap risk (no trading April 3-5) introduces some uncertainty
  • No major catalysts or earnings scheduled before April 6
  • Wide bid-ask spread (11 cents) eliminates any marginal edge

Analysis

2 agents · 0.0s total