Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $160 end of March?
Polymarket · 53d ago
RejectedBUY YES · $0.95
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
99%
P(YES)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
99%
Key Factors
- AMZN at $199.34, needs to drop ~20% in one day to breach $160
- Historical base rate of >20% single-day mega-cap drops is <0.05%
- No imminent catalysts (earnings in late April)
- Market circuit breakers would halt trading before 20% decline
- All March 2026 closes have been $199-$218, far above threshold
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total