Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

“Massive pent-up demand exists: ~870 vessels remain stranded in the Gulf with ~20,000 mariners (per IMO April 21 report). If Iran-US reach even a partial understanding on April 29-30, a coordinated exit surge from trapped vessels could plausibly exceed 40 in a single day, as operators rush to clear positions before conditions reverse again.. Iran has an active diplomatic proposal on the table (via Pakistani/Arab mediators, per Axios/CBS reporting) offering to reopen the Strait if the US lifts its blockade. Trump's team has discussed it. A breakthrough announcement in the final 48 hours is a live, non-zero probability path..”

“The threshold is not 'some recovery'; it is a one-day print of 40+, which is roughly 2x the highest observed conflict-era daily count in the provided research (21). When a market asks for an extreme tail event with only ~2 days left, the relevant base rate is not pre-war capacity but recent realized daily distribution under current constraints. On that basis, YES requires an unprecedented jump from the current regime, not a modest rebound.. The bull's 'pent-up demand' argument confuses stock with flow. Having hundreds of vessels waiting does not imply 40 can or will transit in one day. A one-day flow requires synchronized insurer approval, voyage instructions, pilotage/traffic sequencing, and confidence that passage is actually safe. The recent evidence in the research cuts the other way: even when Iran publicly signaled reopening, realized traffic stayed far below 40 and quickly reverted downward after reversals. Backlog alone is not a catalyst..”