West Bromwich Albion FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 3.5

“Poisson-based baseline: West Brom’s season xG (1.56) + conceded xG (1.70) plus Wrexham’s xG (1.17) + conceded xG (1.59) implies a combined λ≈2.92 and a 33.5% chance of ≥4 goals; historical variance and recent form justify a +5–7% uplift to ~38–40%.. West Brom’s last 6 home Championship games have produced 4+ goals in 4 of 6 (67% Over rate), averaging 4.1 total goals per match, driven by a leaky back line (1.8 goals conceded) and potent attack (1.5 goals scored)..”

“The Bull's Poisson baseline of 2.92 is mathematically flawed as it double-counts goals; a proper additive model using West Brom's home scoring (1.5) and Wrexham's away conceding (1.8) suggests a lower mean, significantly reducing the tail probability of 4+ goals.. West Bromwich Albion under Carlos Corberán is historically a 'control-oriented' side that prioritizes defensive structure; recent high-scoring outliers are regression candidates rather than a permanent shift in tactical philosophy..”