US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

“Top negotiators from both sides reportedly approved a draft peace deal on May 23, 2026, which was sent to leaders for final approval — meaning the technical architecture of an agreement already exists and only requires executive sign-off [42].. Iran has reportedly agreed in principle to dispose of its highly enriched uranium stockpile, which has been the single most contentious technical issue and Trump's stated red line [31]..”

“The bull's strongest cited 'evidence' is not actually evidence of a qualifying resolution. A reported May 23 draft and 'final approval' process, even if true, points at most to a draft MOU / ceasefire extension framework, not necessarily a 'permanent peace deal' that explicitly ends military hostilities in the sense required by the market. Structural mismatch between rumored deal form and market resolution criteria is the core NO case.. Several key claims in the research look unreliable or self-referential. The item 'top negotiators approved a draft peace deal on May 23' is sourced to a 'Polymarket event description,' which is not an independent primary source. Likewise, the claim of a US naval blockade costing Iran '$500 million daily' is attributed to Wikipedia, not an official source here. Those are not robust enough to materially raise YES odds. If the bull leans on them, that is weak sourcing at best..”