US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

“The April 11-12, 2026 Islamabad Talks unambiguously satisfy the market definition: VP JD Vance led a 300-member US delegation, Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf led a 70-member Iranian delegation, talks lasted 21 hours over three rounds, and Wikipedia explicitly characterizes them as 'the first instance of direct high-level, in-person engagement between the United States and Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution.' This meeting occurred BEFORE May 15, 2026 — the market's resolution date.. The market definition per the research states: 'an in-person gathering of official representatives for negotiations on bilateral relations, direct or mediated.' The Islamabad Talks meet every element: in-person ✓, official representatives ✓ (VP, FM, Speaker), negotiations on bilateral relations ✓ (nuclear, sanctions, Hormuz), mediated by Pakistan ✓. There is no requirement in the definition that an agreement be reached..”

“The bull case is overwhelmingly a rules-interpretation bet, not an event-occurrence bet. But the market is still live with only 3.5 days to expiry, deep liquidity, tight spread, and YES priced near the low single digits despite the alleged qualifying meeting being public for a month. In a well-arbitraged market, that is strong structural evidence that traders/resolvers do not believe the April 11-12 event qualifies for this contract.. Several core 'facts' in the research are not reliable enough to support an 85% YES claim. Much of the case rests on Wikipedia pages for a purported 2026 war, ceasefire, and 'Islamabad Talks,' plus YouTube clips and secondary writeups. Those are not robust primary-source resolution evidence. If the bull is asserting the April meeting 'unambiguously' resolves YES, they have not shown the actual resolver-approved source or exact market rules text proving that this specific event counts..”