UD Almería vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: O/U 4.5
Polymarket · 54d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.79
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
80%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
20%
Key Factors
- Combined expected goals likely around 2.8-3.2 for this specific matchup
- Real Sociedad B's poor recent attacking form (0 goals vs Granada)
- Poisson distribution with realistic lambda gives ~15-20% chance of 5+ goals
- Market price of 21% is approximately fair
- Insufficient edge to justify a trade
Analysis
1 agents · 0.0s total