Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?
Polymarket · 24d ago
RejectedREJECTED NO · $0.00
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
96%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Forecaster
4%
Bull
5%
Bear
2%
Bulls say
“The Guardian reported on April 21, 2026 that Trump has privately asked advisors about replacing Gabbard, specifically venting about her handling of a deputy who disagreed with the Iran war — this is concrete evidence of active removal deliberation at the highest level, not mere speculation.. Gabbard has been systematically marginalized: reportedly excluded from the Situation Room meeting approving Operation Epic Fury, with sources telling Tablet she 'doesn't get invited to meetings anymore' — a pattern that historically precedes formal removal..”
Bears say
“The bull's evidence does not establish an April 30 timeline. The strongest cited report is that Trump privately discussed replacing Gabbard on April 21, but discussing replacement is not the same as executing a resignation/removal within the next ~48 hours. Structurally, most senior-official exits take some coordination, and the research itself says no imminent scheduled trigger exists before expiry.. Several core bullish claims are explicitly weak or unverified in the research. The claim that Gabbard was excluded from the Situation Room meeting is marked [UNVERIFIED]. The claim that she 'doesn't get invited to meetings anymore' comes from unnamed-source reporting and is also marked [UNVERIFIED]. The claim that the White House told her she had until midterms to resign is likewise [UNVERIFIED]. If the bull leans on these as hard evidence, they are overstating the evidentiary quality..”
Full Debate
6 agents · 0.0s total