Spread: US Catanzaro 1929 (-2.5)
Polymarket · 47d ago
RejectedREJECTED NO · $0.96
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
95%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
5%
Key Factors
- Monza is a top-3 team with strong away record (7W-5D-4L), making a 3+ goal loss very unlikely
- Catanzaro has not covered -2.5 in any of their last 5 home games
- Historical base rate for -2.5 cover in Serie B is ~10-15%, but lower against top opposition
- Catanzaro's recent results show tight margins (3-2, 2-2, 3-3)
- Pre-match models estimate only ~10% chance of a 3-0+ Catanzaro scoreline
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total