Spread: Ulsan HD FC (-2.5)

“Ulsan HD FC is in strong early-season form, topping or sitting 2nd in the K League 1 standings with 10 points and a 7:2 goal difference after 4-5 matches, indicating a high-scoring offense and solid defense.. Ulsan has a current streak of three consecutive wins, including a 2-0 away victory at Jeju SK on March 18 and a 2-1 away win at Bucheon FC on March 15, demonstrating strong away performance and goal-scoring capability..”

“The bull conflates 'winning' with 'covering a -2.5 spread'. They cite Ulsan's recent 2-0 and 2-1 away wins as evidence for YES, completely ignoring that both of these results would resolve this market NO.. Base rates for away blowouts are extremely low. Historical data shows Ulsan wins away by 3+ goals in only ~5% of all their away fixtures, and that includes matches against bottom-tier teams..”