Spread: Thunder (-20.5)
Polymarket · 47d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.41
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
43%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
57%
Key Factors
- Jazz severely depleted roster (George, Markkanen, Collier injured)
- Thunder elite home record (33-6) vs Jazz terrible road record (8-30)
- Models predict 23-25 point Thunder win, slightly above 20.5 threshold
- Thunder historically rest starters in blowouts, compressing margins
- Historical base rate for covering 20+ point spreads is roughly 50-55%
- Opening book line was -21.5/-22.5, market asks about easier -20.5 threshold
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total