Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)
Polymarket · 46d ago
SkippedSKIP YES · $0.16
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
18%
P(YES)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
18%
Key Factors
- Southampton needs to win by 2+ goals (cover -1.5 spread)
- Championship matches rarely see 2+ goal winning margins - base rate ~15-22%
- Southampton's overall win rate ~44%, but only a subset of wins are by 2+ goals
- Wrexham likely a weaker opponent, which helps Southampton's chances
- Market price of 16% is reasonable and close to my independent estimate of ~18%
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total