Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-2.5)
Polymarket · 46d ago
RejectedREJECTED NO · $0.96
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
96%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
4%
Key Factors
- Vasco has 0 wins by 3+ goals in last 10 matches
- Average of only 1.4 goals scored per game
- Away match in Argentina reduces blowout likelihood
- Recent poor form: loss to Botafogo, draw with Coritiba
- Copa Sudamericana group stage matches tend to be competitive
- Market price of 4% is well-calibrated to the ~4% true probability
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total