Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by May 15?

“Rocha lost gubernatorial immunity on May 1-2, 2026 when he stepped down and the Sinaloa state congress approved his leave, removing one major procedural barrier to arrest (per CBS News, KTVZ reporting).. The U.S. has applied sustained, escalating pressure: Acting AG Todd Blanche on May 6, 2026 publicly warned of more indictments and noted cooperating cartel witnesses (Chapitos, El Mayo Zambada), with implicit executive-branch escalation options..”

“Counter-thesis: Rocha is extremely unlikely to be extradited to the U.S. within ~3 days because extradition is a multi-step sovereign legal process and there is no evidence the prerequisite arrest/custody step has even begun.. The bull case is weak on its own terms: its stated P(YES)=0.02 is already a NO case, not a genuine bullish thesis. More importantly, none of the bull points supplies a mechanism for compressing arrest, judicial review, executive approval, and physical transfer into the remaining window..”