Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17?

“Russia has conducted documented drone and missile strikes on the Kyiv region multiple times in the first 15 days of April 2026 alone — on April 3-4 (massive barrage of 'almost half a thousand drones and cruise missiles'), April 10-11 (long-range drone strike campaign), and continuous operations throughout the month. The base rate of attacks on Kyiv municipality is near-daily or at minimum multiple times per week.. The brief Easter ceasefire (April 11-13) has already expired as of April 13, and both sides accused each other of violations even during the ceasefire itself. With the ceasefire over, the historical pattern of immediate resumption of strikes makes attacks in the remaining ~2 days highly likely..”

“The market asks specifically about Kyiv MUNICIPALITY, not the broader Kyiv region or oblast. The bull's cited attacks on April 3-4 hit 'Bucha, Fastiv, and Obukhiv' — these are satellite towns in Kyiv Oblast, NOT Kyiv municipality proper. This is a critical geographic distinction that inflates the apparent base rate.. The research notes 'no comprehensive reporting from reliable sources has documented specific drone, missile, or air strikes on Kyiv municipality proper on April 14-15' — meaning the most recent 2 days before expiry show no confirmed hits on the municipality itself, which directly undermines the 'near-daily' frequency claim for the specific resolution geography..”