Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?

“Reuters' April 11 report cited sources close to Khamenei's inner circle saying images of Mojtaba could be released 'within one or two months' — a window that explicitly extends into mid-May to mid-June, directly overlapping the May 31 deadline.. Iranian officials have launched a coordinated PR campaign in the last week (Financial Times/Iran International May 21) to demonstrate Mojtaba 'remains in charge' and will personally decide on a U.S. deal — this messaging escalation is the kind of pattern that typically precedes a staged public reveal to legitimize a major decision..”

“The bull's core timing evidence is weak and non-committal: Reuters reportedly said images could be released within 'one or two months' from April 11, which spans roughly mid-May to mid-June. That is not a forecast of a public appearance by May 31; it explicitly leaves substantial probability mass after the deadline, and 'images released' is also not the same as a photographed or videotaped public appearance under this market.. There is no identified forcing event before May 31. The bull assumes legitimacy pressure must convert into a public reveal within 5.8 days, but the research itself notes no constitutional deadline, no scheduled summit, no required ceremony, and no clear event that compels Mojtaba to appear now rather than later. Without a forcing mechanism, short-dated YES contracts should be discounted heavily..”