Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?

“The regime has strong legitimacy incentives to show Mojtaba alive: rumors of incapacitation, possible amputation, and disfigurement (per Reuters April 11 and CNN May 8 reporting) are circulating widely, and the longer he remains invisible, the more these narratives threaten the office of the supreme leader.. Iranian officials have publicly claimed he is 'in complete health' (Mazaher Hosseini, per CNN), which sets up rhetorical groundwork for a controlled visual reveal — the regime would not make such claims if it intended to keep him invisible indefinitely..”

“The strongest structural fact is revealed preference: despite months of extraordinary rumor pressure, the regime has still not produced a clear, current photo/video. If legitimacy incentives were sufficient to force disclosure, they likely would have done so already at a major symbolic moment like the May 26 Hajj message. Instead they again used text/ambiguous 'recorded statement' formats, which is evidence of a durable concealment equilibrium, not an imminent reveal.. The bull overstates the implication of official claims that Mojtaba is 'in complete health.' Authoritarian regimes routinely issue reassuring health statements precisely to avoid having to provide visual proof. A verbal denial is a low-cost substitute for a risky appearance; it does not increase the probability of a near-term visual reveal. Structurally, cheap talk should be discounted when the regime can preserve legitimacy without exposing the principal..”