Macarthur FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5

“The head-to-head (H2H) matches between Macarthur FC and Newcastle United Jets FC have a high propensity for goals, with over 3.5 goals occurring in 7 out of 17 (41%) encounters, and an average of 3.65 goals per game. Recent examples include scores of 4-5, 3-3, and 3-4, indicating a history of high-scoring affairs.. Both teams exhibit high goal averages. Newcastle Jets average 3.59 goals per game (2.09 scored, 1.50 conceded), while Macarthur averages 2.91 goals per game (1.27 scored, 1.64 conceded). The combined prediction for these teams is 73% over 2.5 goals and 41% over 3.5 goals..”

“Base rates heavily favor the Under: The A-League average for Over 3.5 goals is just 33%, and Macarthur's season-long Over 3.5 rate is an abysmal 27%.. The bull's math is contradictory: They explicitly cite a combined prediction of 41% for Over 3.5 goals, yet inexplicably assign a 65% probability to YES..”