Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?

“Powell's term as Fed Chair expires by federal statute on May 15, 2026 — this is a fixed institutional date confirmed by the Federal Reserve, Brookings, and multiple primary sources. Absent a new nomination and confirmation (which has not occurred), he cannot legally remain Chair beyond that date.. Powell himself publicly committed on April 29, 2026 to stepping down as Chair on May 15, stating: 'After my term as chair ends on May 15, I will continue to serve as a governor' and 'When Kevin Warsh is confirmed and sworn in, he will be that chair.' This is an unambiguous, on-the-record commitment..”

“The bull case is built on an interpretation leap, not on the actual market wording. The market resolves YES only if Powell 'ceases to be Chair ... between market creation and the specified date.' If the deadline is inclusive through May 15 ET, then a term ending on May 15 does not automatically imply he was already 'out by' the deadline; boundary-time interpretation matters. In thinly specified event markets, resolution mechanics often dominate substance.. Several key claims in the research appear dubious or at least not independently established from the prompt: the April 29 Powell press conference quotes, the DOJ/renovation investigation details, the Warsh committee vote specifics, and the claim that Warren's office confirmed a floor vote this week. Those may be true, but they are not verifiable here and the bull treats them as settled facts. If any of that is fabricated or mis-sourced, the 97-98% bull probability collapses because the only robust fact left is a term end date plus ambiguous contract language..”