Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

“A ceasefire was formally implemented on April 8, 2026, brokered by Pakistan and announced by President Trump. If the market requires a 14-day continuous period WITHOUT qualifying military action to BEGIN between market creation and April 15, the ceasefire's existence at least creates a theoretical pathway — the question is whether any qualifying military actions have occurred since April 8.. The ceasefire agreement was claimed as a victory by both sides, and Iran reopened some tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by April 11, suggesting partial de-escalation between the US and Iran specifically. The core dispute is about Lebanon/proxy inclusion, not direct US-Iran hostilities. If 'qualifying military action' is narrowly defined as direct Iran vs. Israel/US exchanges, the ceasefire between the US and Iran may technically be holding..”

“The resolution requires a CONTINUOUS 14-day period without qualifying military action to BEGIN before April 15. With only 2.6 days remaining until April 15, even if all hostilities ceased today (April 12), the 14-day window would not complete until April 26 — well past the resolution date. The market resolves NO unless the 14-day period BEGAN before April 1 and has remained unbroken, which is structurally impossible given documented military actions throughout early April.. Israeli strikes on April 8-9 killing 182+ people in Lebanon, and Hezbollah rocket fire on northern Israeli towns (Kiryat Shmona, Taibe, Manara) beginning April 9, almost certainly constitute 'qualifying military action' under any reasonable interpretation. These are not minor incidents — they represent the deadliest single day of fighting since the Lebanon campaign began. The ceasefire was functionally broken within hours of implementation..”